Current state and prospects of animal husbandry development in Ukraine

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Rossokha, Volodymyr
Nechyporenko, Oleksandr
Cheremisina, Svitlana
Mazurenko, Olena
Petrychenko, Oleksandr
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The article is devoted to current problems that arose in the field of animal husbandry due to Russian military aggression, temporary occupation of part of the territory, and active combat actions in Ukraine. The purpose of the article is to monitor the production and consumption of animal products, calculate losses of livestock and production of animal industries due to Russian aggression, and forecast parameters of their reproduction to achieve pre-war consumption and further development in the conditions of war. In the course of the research were used the information base of the State Statistics Service, estimated indicators of the State Budget of Ukraine for 2023, information and analytical materials of the National Research Center Institute of Agrarian Economics on indicators of production of livestock products, and justification of investment projects for the creation of mini-farms. The following methodological tools were used in the research process: methods of statistical comparisons, namely, comparison of indicators, absolute and relative comparisons of changes in the value of a sign in relation to the base indicator; factor analysis - to determine the factors influencing the reproduction of livestock products to the pre-war level; functional analysis - to determine the dependence of production on livestock and animal productivity; balance method - for forming the balance of animal husbandry products; and calculation-constructive method - to determine the amount of investments for the restoration of livestock industries for production to the level of the pre-war period. To determine the fund and the level of consumption of livestock products per person of the population, balance sheets were drawn up. It was established that the norms of consumption of livestock products are met only for poultry meat. The actual level of meat consumption in Ukraine is only 62.3% of the norm, including beef - 25.7%, pork - 71.1%. The forecast of production of livestock products was made based on the calculation of livestock losses and animal productivity in the territories temporarily occupied and affected by Russian aggression. According to our calculations, in 2022, the gross output of the studied branches of animal husbandry decreased compared to 2021 by 12.6%, or by EUR 227.5 million (from EUR 1.8 to 1.57 billion). Actual losses amount to EUR 477.5 million. In order to reach the pre-war level of consumption of livestock products, it is necessary to increase production of beef by 14.7%, pork by 5.8%, and milk by 8.5%. The number of investments to compensate for losses in the reproduction of meat and dairy cattle breeding and pig breeding industries is forecasted to be EUR 790 - 875 million, including meat and livestock sector - EUR 480 million, dairy farming - EUR 357 million, pig farming - EUR 37.5 million. The main influencing factors on the further development of animal husbandry have been established. The further development of the livestock industry will depend on the manifestation of the following factors: missile attacks by the Russian occupiers of Ukrainian territory, especially energy supply systems, and the ability of the armed forces of Ukraine to "close the sky"; demining the territory, restoring the logistics of commodity flows and exportimport operations; provision of state support for the reproduction of destroyed and damaged productions of livestock products; the purchasing power of the population of Ukraine for products of animal origin; and the level of migration activity of the population in the country.
animal husbandry, livestock industry, production forecast, level of consumption, loss of livestock, loss of production, balance sheet, volume of investments, article
Current state and prospects of animal husbandry development in Ukraine / Volodymyr Rossokha, Oleksandr Nechyporenko, Svitlana Cheremisina, Olena Mazurenko, Oleksandr Petrychenko // Journal of Hygienic Engineering and Design. - 2023. - P. 60-69.